The IMEP expert at the Nursultan Nazarbayev Foundation, Lydia Parkhomchik, assessed the current relations between the US and China, Tengrinews.kz reports.
The political scientist notes that the growing criticism of the Donald Trump administration regarding the Chinese leadership creates the prerequisites for the trade confrontation between the US and China to return to the “hot phase”.
“Another cause for concern was the statement by trade adviser Peter Navarro that the head of the White House decided to stop observing trade powers of attorney with Beijing. And although the president of the United States refuted this statement through Twitter diplomacy, the current attitude of the American establishment towards China remains alarmist “, – says Lydia Parkhomchik.
The trade agreement signed on January 15, 2020 requires China to increase its purchases of US goods and services by $ 200 billion over the next two years. A significant part of the transaction relates to agricultural products, as well as the supply of hydrocarbons produced in the United States.
“Washington realizes that the implementation of the agreement is a prerequisite for eliminating the imbalance in bilateral trade with China.
However, ongoing negotiations with representatives of the Chinese side have changed their dynamics due to the COVID-2019 pandemic. Firstly, the economic slowdown in China caused by the outbreak of coronavirus significantly slowed down the pace of implementation of the agreements reached on the volume of imports of American goods. Secondly, the US accusations of China’s involvement and connivance in the global worsening of the epidemiological situation due to the spread of COVID-2019 are becoming more aggressive. The discussion in the USA on the possibility of introducing a package of sanctions against China due to the situation with the coronavirus crisis can be considered an indicative moment, ”the expert added.
At the official level, Beijing and Washington are still committed to following the obligations of the first phase of the trade agreement, the political scientist notes, but the prospects for finalizing the negotiations raise some concerns.
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“International experts fear that if the“ trade war ”resumes, the loss of the world economy will be much higher than current forecasts. Moreover, due to a new round of US-Chinese trade contradictions, the period of the world’s return to pre-pandemic indicators will increase significantly. This situation is dangerous further imbalance of transport and logistics chains and falling demand for energy.