Bank analysts consider a major solar flare more likely than world war
According to a study by Deutsche Bank, there is a 33% chance that in the next decade, humanity will face a crisis caused by a flu pandemic, a catastrophic volcanic eruption, a major solar flare, or a world war. This was reported by Banking News.
If the time frame expands to two decades, then the likelihood that one of these disasters will happen increases to 56%.
Earthquakes were excluded from the scenarios on the grounds that they are local events.
The possibility of a solar flare is usually rarely discussed, probably because the last serious flare occurred in 1859, but the Deutsche Bank team considers this event more likely than a major world war.
Analysts write that in the event of such an outbreak, significant interruptions in the supply of electricity are possible, which, in turn, will affect the entire economy, since critical infrastructure will not be able to function properly.
People’s lives may be lost, as this will affect hospitals.
Communication will be lost, payment systems will malfunction. The GPS system will not work well due to strong electromagnetic interference, which will affect industries based on location services.
Researchers rated the likelihood of a major solar flare at 12% per decade and at 40% that this would happen over the next 40 years.
Researchers also estimated the likelihood of a crisis in one year by looking at these events:
- pandemic of influenza (at least 2 million people may become its victims) – 2% probability;
- geomagnetic storm due to solar flare – 1.06%;
- world war – 0.63%;
- very strong volcanic eruption – 0.15%.