Dolphins at Bengals Thursday Night Football best bets

Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season starts off with Dolphins-Bengals on Thursday night.

All through the season, our VSiN specialists will consolidate to give their smartest choices on each game. Inquire for our smartest options until the end of Week 4 as we draw nearer to the opening shot.

Chances are from DraftKings (except if noted) as of Wednesday night.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (- 3.5, 47.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Josh Appelbaum: The Bengals opened as 3-point home top choices and moved to – 4 preceding a few Dolphins buyback Wednesday night brought the line down to 3.5. A 1-point or half-point line push toward a home most loved isn’t eye-popping. In any case, when a home most loved is disagreeable nevertheless sees line development in support of its, that is prominent.

As of now, 65% of wagers at DraftKings are taking the Dolphins in addition to the places. Typically when a canine is getting 66% of wagers, you can anticipate that they should tumble from + 3 to + 2.5 or + 2. Yet, the specific inverse occurred here. For what reason are the books passing out an extra point or half highlight Dolphins bettors when the general population is pounding them?

Assuming that it looks unrealistic, it normally is. This seems to be a work of art “blur the stylish canine” framework play. I’ll lay the focuses with the Bengals, who appreciate uncommon purchase low worth as an antagonist home number one with switch line development in an early evening game.

Pick: Bengals – 3.5

Dave Tuley: We get one more captivating Thursday night matchup with the Dolphins (one of just two undefeated groups left alongside the Birds) visiting the Bengals, who at last got in the success section with their 27-12 win at the Planes on Sunday.

However, Tagovailoa says he will play, and assuming that is the situation, we need to like the swelled cost on the Dolphins once more (last week, we adored the Dolphins at + 6 against the Bills, who many individuals were placing in the Super Bowl as of now). The Dolphins safeguard permitted just 19 focuses against the Bills, and in the event that it could contain Josh Allen, it has a decent possibility closing down Joe Tunnel, who has been sacked multiple times in three games.

Pick: Dolphins + 3.5

Adam Burke: Cincinnati’s concerns in all out attack mode line are not restricted to the security of Joe Tunnel. The Bengals are tied for eighth in surging endeavors however rank twentieth in hurrying yards. They’re not opening openings for Joe Mixon, who has 2.8 yards per carry on the season. Mixon has had a sufficient responsibility to have the option to deliver some high-yardage sums, however he has overseen 3.04, 3.00 and 2.00 yards per convey in three games against pretty common guards.

The Dolphins have permitted five yards for every convey except have additionally confronted Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, versatile quarterbacks who have caused harm to their rush-safeguard numbers. The Dolphins have permitted 166 yards on 19 endeavors to quarterbacks (8.7 YPC) yet just have 168 yards on 46 endeavors to running backs (3.7).

With Cincinnati’s O-line misfortunes, it ought to be one more dreary day for Mixon. With the Bengals’ wide collector weapons, Zac Taylor has relatively little motivation to run the ball except if his group has a late lead. Assuming that that is the situation, the Dolphins will stack the case against a terrible hostile line.

Pick: Joe Mixon Under 63.5 Surging Yards (- 115)

Danny Burke: Miami’s offense has been a disclosure up to this point. Safeguard, nonetheless, is where the Dolphins’ issues live.

Miami positions 24th in generally speaking DVOA safeguard and 27th in yards per play permitted (6.2). The group is likewise giving up 10.6 yards per pass culmination and positions 29th in DVOA pass protection. What does this amount to? Joe Tunnel allowing it to fly.

Zac Taylor comprehends these shortcomings and will hope to uncover them. As far as target share contrasted with player prop esteem, the player that stands apart is Joe Mixon.

Mixon is no more peculiar to the passing game. He’s averaging 34.3 getting yards on 6.7 targets per game this season. The least number I found on his getting yards prop was 18.5, and that is the pick in this game.

Last week alone, the Dolphins let three Bills running backs move past that imprint. Miami is permitting contradicting running backs 6.7 gatherings for 52 getting yards for every game. Tunnel is more than open to playing dink-and-dunk with Mixon, who can say for sure how to take full advantage of those potential open doors. Also, there ought to be a lot of them, taking into account the Dolphins’ principal center around protection will cover the three-headed beast of Ja’Marr Pursue, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. That passes on a lot of room for Mixon to take a few actions in the short ignoring game and go 18.5 getting yards, a number he has obscured in two out of three games so far.

Play: Joe Mixon Over 18.5 Getting Yards (- 117)

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