U.S. President Donald Trump has a 91 percent chance of winning the election in November 2020, a simulation by a political science professor who correctly predicted the outcome of five out of six elections since 1996.
“The primary model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” said University professor Stony Brook, a well-known political scientist Helmut Norpoth.
His model, which he has been leading since 1996, has correctly predicted the outcome of 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced. According to the professor, the model calculates the winning candidate on the basis of primaries and focuses on how much support candidates can collect in the early stages of the nomination process.
If the forecast is correct, former vice president Joe Biden will be at a disadvantage due to a loss in his first two presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The professor also said that the model that predicted Trump’s election in 2016 partially ignores opinion polls – in particular, in the last election, many polls-based forecasts gave Hillary Clinton victory.