Scientists at the California Institute of Technology, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Santiago High School have identified the most likely location of alien civilizations in the Milky Way. The researchers took into account such a factor as the self-destruction of intelligent creatures. This is reported in a paper published in the arXiv.org preprint repository.
To estimate the prevalence and age of alien civilizations, experts used a galactic simulation model, which takes into account the probability of abiogenesis (emergence of living nature from non-living), the rate of evolutionary change, as well as the probability of death of a civilization. It turned out that the latter parameter has the greatest influence on the number of intelligent civilizations and their age.
According to the simulation results, the greatest number of possible alien civilizations inhabits the ring region, located four thousand parsecs (one parsec equals 3.2 light years) from the center of the Milky Way. More and more civilizations disappear over time, but the inner regions of the Milky Way remain the most densely populated. In addition, most intelligent life forms are young, which makes them difficult to detect.
The distance from the center of the galaxy to the Sun is 8.5 thousand parsecs.