Just a few months ago, just as we were feeling more relaxed about Covid-19 was over, another virus threatened to spread a new pandemic.
It was a potentially deadly virus that had traveled north from Africa. The virus literally spun around on a European dance floor before ricocheting across the globe.
Australia was the first country to see a case in May. One Australian doctor stated that cases were on an alarmingly high trajectory by June.
On TikTok and other TV shows, some of the afflicted shared their symptoms and displayed their rashes. As fears grew that social media would spread to schools, the internet became more agitated.
One group of doctors went so far as to declare it a “pandemic” unilaterally and urge the World Health Organisation to follow suit.
This virus is monkeypox.
However, the incidences of smallpox are declining like a stone just a few short months later.
This is a remarkable and unexpected turnaround for a virus many predicted would decimate the population. Health watchers continue to investigate which measures had the greatest impact on the numbers.
This could be a case study on how to squash a disease in its earliest stages.
The White House’s deputy coordinator for the monkeypox response team, Dr Demetre Daskalakis, told the New York Timothy that the monkeypox epidemic has been stopped so effectively that it might soon be a distant memory.
“Our goal is to eradicate, that’s why we’re working towards it.”
“The prediction is that we will get very close to our goal.”
A public health expert warned that monkeypox will not go away soon. There are also concerns that the number of cases could rise again.
Dramatic turn around
In the most recent outbreak, monkeypox has been contracted by 68,000 people worldwide in 100 countries.
According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the US has experienced 25,000 infections, making it the largest outbreak worldwide. Cases peaked at 736 on August 22nd, according to the CDC.
Only 107 cases were reported as new on September 28.
New York City is one of the epicenters of monkeypox. New cases are now only one tenth as common as six weeks ago.
Australia has had 136 cases, with Victoria accounting for half. Nobody has ever died. However, last week it was revealed Victoria had not seen a new case for several weeks.
Professor Brett Sutton, chief health officer, said that it indicated that monkeypox has “turned around”.
This remarkable success, from Melbourne to Miami and Manchester to Manchester, is believed to be due to two things: first changes in behavior and then protection from vaccines.
It is believed that Monkeypox traveled from central or western Africa, where it is endemic in some areas, to Europe, and then spread through two dance parties, mainly attended by gay men.
The virus is transmitted primarily by skin-on-skin contact, which can also include sex.
The virus that is currently circulating around the world appears to be mild. There have been 26 deaths, and some people have suffered kidney damage.
Successful Collaboration with LGBTI Community
The virus may have been contained within the LGBTI community, which may have prevented it from spreading further.
This also allowed for health messages to be targeted at a smaller audience.
Professor William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University in the US, said that there has been a tremendous amount of public education on health.
He said that people have been “literally flooded with information about monkeypox and what you can do to prevent becoming infected,” ABC News.
“I think a lot of the communication was successful, I believe. People may have changed their behavior to lower their risk, I believe.
This assertion is supported by data. The CDC and Emory University teamed up to create a paper that detailed how half of the 824 gay men surveyed reported a decrease in sexual encounters since becoming aware of monkeypox.
The paper stated that “These data indicate that MSM are taking precautions to protect themselves, their partners, and monkeypox.”
It was also helpful that gay men, who have lived with HIV for many decades, are more aware of their health and know what to do if they need it.
A smaller number of people meant that monkeypox didn’t affect everyone. Many gay men knew someone who had it.
14-times less likely to contract monkey pox
The initial decrease in sexual activity allowed for increased vaccine efforts. It took some time. The Jynneos vaccine was the main one. There was not much available immediately.
Production was accelerated and more shots were squeezed out of each vial. The medication was administered just below the skin, rather than directly into the muscle, as with Covid shots.
To create a wall protecting against monkeypox, the vaccinations were also prioritized for those most at risk. This is known as “ring vaccination”.
Dr. Sutton spoke of the Australian outbreak and said that “this has turned around due to (the LGBTI community’s) responsiveness et engagement.”
“Lo and behold! Those pillars of public health respondent work. Contact tracing, case isolation and early testing are all possible through close involvement with the at-risk community.
The Jynneos jab was not specifically designed for this outbreak. There was concern that it might not be as effective.
However, CDC data this week revealed that monkeypox victims who didn’t have the jab were fourteen times more likely than those who had it.There was a new way to manage the virus. Photo by Patrick T. Fallon.
Some are voicing caution, however.
“While it is encouraging to see that cases have fallen, monkeypox won’t likely go away anytime soon,” Professor Andrew Lee of the University for Sheffield in public health wrote on the academic website The conversation.
Although the evidence on vaccine effectiveness is encouraging, he suggested that the factors that contributed to the reduction of cases could also be sexual behavior changes.
This is a problem because asking people who are sexually active to stop having sex for extended periods of time has never proven to be a very effective strategy.
“The danger is when people behave differently to before the current outbreak started. Prof Lee said that this could lead to an increase in infection rates.
“We must not stigmatize the condition to make it harder for people with it to seek treatment.”
It will be remarkable for monkeypox to continue to fall, which is a significant turnaround for a virus many thought was the new Covid. It could also be used as a model for future outbreaks.
As was the case with Covid-19, however, many people who live in poorer countries are often left behind.
Monkeypox could vanish in Australia, the UK, and the US. It can still be found in Africa, but it could always return to the international arena.
The virus could also be spread to other groups, making it more difficult for the virus to reach and communicate with them. They may also be less likely to change their behavior.