Leading climatologists have said that the current heat wave in Siberia, when the thermometers reached a record 38 degrees Celsius, is impossible, if you do not take into account the impact of anthropogenic climate change. Science Alert reports on the true cause of the catastrophic heat wave.
The researchers found that record high temperatures were two degrees higher than with a hypothetical absence of greenhouse gas emissions for decades. At the same time, the values of the thermometer columns rose by five degrees above the average in the period from January to June. The temperature in the city of Verkhoyansk (Yakutia) was recorded at 38 degrees Celsius, which exceeds previous records.
The relationship between extreme heat and anthropogenic human influence on the biosphere was obtained using climate change attribution methods designed to determine the causes of global warming. Scientists have modeled the modern climate, which is about one degree warmer than the climate in the pre-industrial era, and compared it to a model that generates temperatures in Siberia without human influence, that is, without taking into account the additional degree.
It turned out that the heat observed now should not occur more often than once every 80 thousand years. However, human influence increased the likelihood of this event by at least 600 times.
Scientists believe that the extreme heat caused wildfires that affected 1.15 million hectares and released additional millions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Permafrost thawing also intensified, which contributed to the depressurization of the oil reservoir and the catastrophic fuel spill in Norilsk in May.