Opinion polls promise Joe Biden victory in the US presidential election. He is now ahead of Donald Trump with a record margin of 12%, a study by the University of Monmouth showed. The Democrat became more popular than Hillary Clinton when she participated in the presidential race four years ago. What led to such results? And what are Trump’s chances of being reelected? About this – Ivan Yakunin and Ulyana Minenkova.
Coronavirus deprived Donald Trump of two important advantages. Firstly, economic growth – closed enterprises, unemployment – all this negatively affects the confidence ratings of the current president. Secondly, all public speaking was canceled. Trump could come to any city and assemble a stadium, assuring his fans that he was the best. Joe Biden as a speaker is much inferior to his opponent. But the polls are called the Democrat’s favorite, CNBC correspondent Eamon Javers said:
“A few weeks ago, we first saw how all six vacillating states supported Joe Biden, and since then the level of support for the politician there has continued to grow. Why is this happening? Doubting states find less and less relevant issues that Trump considers the most important. Thus, less than half of potential electors support the way the current president proposes to solve the problems of immigration, the economy and the growth of welfare of the population. And everything else is mixed with fears about the pandemic. The level of concern over whether Trump is controlling the epidemic is growing in the fluctuating states. ”
Trump is really known for being skeptical of a pandemic. For example, at no public event did he appear in a mask – this is a principled position. Also does his immediate environment. Only a few months later, the Republicans suddenly realized that the threat was real, says CBS News special correspondent Nicole Sgenga: “After Trump met with voters in Oklahoma, eight people who were involved in her organization fell ill, and the co-chair of the movement“ Black Voices for Trump ”even went to the hospital. And in the end, the Republican election headquarters was quarantined for a week, so that they become much more cautious. Yes, agitators still go to the voters’s homes, even in Texas or Arizona, but the republican authorities still impose mandatory wear of masks and regular temperature checks, and insist on compliance with all sanitary standards. ”
Republicans themselves look down on the allegations, and the results of the polls do not recognize at all. Here, for example, is an excerpt from an interview with one of Donald Trump’s key advisers, Corey Lewandowski. He helped him win the first election: “All this so much resembles 2016 – then, at about the same stage of the campaign, opinion polls showed that Clinton was 9% ahead of Trump. In my experience, and I already have some understanding of this topic, all these national polls have no meaning. What really matters is support for fluctuating states. And no matter what the polls say, in many of them Trump’s position is as strong as during the last election, or even stronger. In the headlines, of course, they forget to mention this, but we have made some of the vacillating states ours and now focus on the rest – this is an important part of our campaign. ”
The reports did not say, due to which Joe Biden was able to gain such a significant margin. But one hypothesis is still there. For several weeks, the country has been plagued by protests. Black Lives Matter activists are gaining more and more supporters. And Biden actively uses the theme of racism in his public speeches. For example, in an appeal to the nation on US Independence Day:
“Our country was based on the idea of“ all people are equal. ” We never abided by this rule – even Jefferson had slaves. 200 years of systematic racism. But once voiced, this idea could no longer disappear. The murder of Martin Luther King, the death of George Floyd – these are events that call for justice to be restored. Yes, America is not a fairy tale, but now we have the opportunity to end racism in this country and, finally, to understand the words that our nation stands on. We can win and win if we act together. ”
Donald Trump avoids this topic, apparently, believing that he will not be able to attract activists to his side. But the situation with the polls does not seem to scare him at all. On Twitter, the US president wrote: “The silent majority is stronger now than ever. Just watch. ”