Representatives and supporters of the US Democratic Party so far should not write off the incumbent President Donald Trump and recognize him in advance as a loser in the elections to be held in November. This opinion was expressed by experts interviewed by CNN.
According to public opinion analysts, many Democrats and voters supporting them have already begun to celebrate the victory of the most likely Democratic candidate, former vice president Joe Biden, in the upcoming elections, inspired by recent polls that showed he was 12 percent ahead of Trump . In addition, the optimism of the Democrats and their supporters is facilitated by the protracted crisis against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, which has not yet been overcome, as well as the mass protests that swept the American cities after the death of black George Floyd, who died as a result of brutal police detention – both of which factors supposedly should significantly reduce the popularity of the current president among Americans.
However, experts say it is too early to predict Trump’s election defeat. This is primarily due to the fact that in fact Biden’s results have not improved much recently, despite the worsening situation in the country under the rule of Trump. Thus, the level of support of the former vice president among the general population has grown by only 4 percent since May. At the same time, among black voters, the number of supporters of Biden has increased by only 2 percent since last October – from 74 to 76 percent. Among voters of Hispanic descent, this figure is even more modest – 36 percent currently against 35 percent in October 2019. Moreover, at the moment, Biden’s advantage over Trump among Hispanic Americans is only 24 percent, while Democratic candidate in the 2016 elections, Hillary Clinton had a 38 percent advantage and still lost.
In addition, as practice shows, the results of summer opinion polls rarely coincide with the results that candidates demonstrate in the autumn elections. So, the same Clinton was ahead of Trump by 12 percent in the summer of 2016, but eventually lost to him. In 1988, George W. Bush first lagged behind his opponent Michael Dukakis by 17 percent, but directly behind him by 8 percent in the election.
Also, CNN interlocutors noted, it is known that Americans rarely allow the incumbent president to be elected for a second term – in the history of the USA over the past 75 years there have been only three such cases. It should be noted that most citizens of the country still approve of Trump’s economic policy, which adds points to him.
Another argument in favor of Trump can be considered that Biden alone is not a strong candidate who can oppose some kind of program to the current American leader. At the same time, he does not have sufficient oratorical abilities and is not able to effectively conduct debates. As a result, the November elections, by their very nature, most likely will not represent the struggle of two strong candidates, but a kind of referendum on the confidence of Americans in Trump.
In late May, a professor at Stony Brook University Helmut Norpoth, who predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, said Trump would win the upcoming election with a 91 percent probability. According to him, to predict the victory of Trump in the presidential election allows his results in the primaries, during which he easily beat other candidates from the Republican Party.