In early June, Democratic Representative Joe Biden became the leading candidate. The gap between candidates is widening. According to public opinion polls presented on the website RealClearPolitics, the probability of Biden’s victory is now estimated at 60.1%, and Trump at 36.1%.
Donald Trump’s position has been shaken by the coronavirus. The US is in recession. The unemployment rate in June was 11.1%. At the same time, U-6 unemployment is 18%. This indicator takes into account “hidden” unemployment, that is, people desperate to find a job or working part-time due to economic conditions. Trump’s attempts to find an external enemy in China and a massive fiscal stimulus program failed to rectify the political situation.
Joe Biden’s election victory could have a significant impact on financial markets. In early July, Trump warned that if such a scenario was realized, the stock market would turn into nothing.
This is not entirely obvious. It is better to analyze the situation in more detail. If investors are confident in Biden’s victory, then movements in the markets will occur on the eve of elections, and not after the event.